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2024-12-14 00:08:41

Ye Fan, Southwest Securities: In 2025, the upward trend of domestic economy will continue, and it is estimated that the annual RRR will be lowered by about 100bp. The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. Ye Fan, chief economist of Southwest Securities, said that in 2025, the domestic economy will continue to stabilize and upward under the policy. From the structural point of view, infrastructure and manufacturing investment are expected to remain the main support items for domestic investment next year, and the decline in real estate investment will gradually narrow; Domestic demand is expected to play a stronger role in stimulating the economy than external demand, and domestic residents' consumption is expected to continue to pick up under the policy. Regarding the direction of fiscal and monetary policies, Ye Fan predicted that the issuance scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds will be around 1.5 trillion -2 trillion yuan in 2025, and it will continue to support the "dual" areas. In the first half of next year or the peak of government bond issuance, there may be a RRR cut for hedging. It is estimated that the RRR cut will be about 100bp for the whole year, and the interest rate cut will be decided by camera. The interest rate cut of 25bp-40bp may be promoted step by step.The concept of unmanned driving changed partially. Both Haida and SAIC have daily limit, while the concept of unmanned driving changed partially. Both Zhonghaida and SAIC have daily limit, and Gaoxinxing, Huati Technology, Yutong Heavy Industry and Jinlong Automobile have followed suit.India's NIFTY50 index fell 1% to 24,301.30 points, and India's SENSEX index fell 1% to 80,476.70 points.


In the first 11 months of this year, Guangdong's import and export increased by 10% year-on-year. According to statistics from Guangdong Branch of the General Administration of Customs, in the first 11 months of this year, Guangdong's foreign trade import and export reached 8.27 trillion yuan, up by 10% year-on-year, faster than the national growth rate by 5.1 percentage points, accounting for 20.8% of the national total import and export value. Among them, exports were 5.37 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.7%; Imports reached 2.9 trillion yuan, up by 12.6%.South Korea's stock market is bound to erase all the declines since the martial law storm, and South Korea's benchmark stock index will continue to rebound on Friday, which is bound to recover all the lost ground since the martial law storm. South Korea's Kospi index once rose by 0.7%, heading for four consecutive gains, erasing all the declines since December 3 in intraday trading. Late that night, South Korean President Yin Xiyue announced martial law and then hastily lifted it, shocking the world. Investors believe that South Korea's stock market has fallen too far recently, and expect that if Congress passes the second impeachment motion against Yin Xiyue over the weekend, the risk of political turmoil will be alleviated. Although Yin Xiyue refused to step down and vowed to fight to the end, there are more and more signs that some ruling party members may support the impeachment motion.Japan's final industrial output value in October increased by 2.8% month-on-month and 1.4% year-on-year.


The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1.5 trillion for the 11th consecutive trading day, nearly 70 billion more than yesterday.By 13:42, 100 stocks in the two cities had daily limit.New Beiyang (Thailand) Company opened. According to the news of New Beiyang, on December 12th, the launching ceremony of New Beiyang (Thailand) Company was held in chonburi province, Thailand. This was the first factory established by New Beiyang overseas, which marked another major breakthrough in the company's internationalization strategy and laid a solid foundation for the company's future internationalization development. The park leased by New Beiyang (Thailand) Company covers an area of more than 5,500 square meters in the first phase. At present, the special printing and scanning product line built in the factory has been successfully put into production and is ready to start mass delivery. In the future, the company will continue to expand the production and delivery of some smart equipment products in Thai factories.

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